Rapport

Young Real Estate Professionals of Richmond

Commercial Real Estate gloom and doom

I can’t help wonder whether other Metropolitan areas suffer from the same lack of information as Richmond. Specifcally, we are inundated by bad news from both residential and commercial real estate fronts. Our local paper publishes no fewer than 3 articles per week on the subject…albeit 99% residentially slanted. I admit that the articles by locals usually acknowledge that Richmond is suffering far less than the rest of the country, but I have to wonder why commercial real estate in Richmond is simply ignored. Using Yahoo’s and Google’s news aggregators, I read countless articles everyday about how the sky is falling in the real estate universe. Just now I read: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b38090dc-a10c-11dc-9f34-0000779fd2ac.html. I would say that nearly EVERY article about the state of affairs in the commercial real estate industry deals with securitzed sales. That is, when journalists spew information at us about this and that, they gather it from national real estate investment firms, Wall Street, etc.

I have to ask though: HOW DOES THIS INFORMATION APPLY TO RICHMOND? How much of our commercial real estate market falls into the “securitized” arena? I submit that it’s a miniscule amount. That brings me back to the original point of this post: WHERE IS THE USEFUL INFORMATION? The public should be informed about how OUR markets are doing. I guarantee you the statistics on Richmond’s commercial real estate market bears little resemblance to what we’re hearing about the nation in general. 

Update: http://www.virginiabusiness.com/edit/magazine/yr2007/dec07/cover.shtml
While there are pockets where commercial construction has slowed such as the Dulles corridor in Northern Virginia, overall commercial construction in Virginia remains healthy, says Steven Vermillion, chief executive officer of the Associated General Contractors of Virginia. Construction employment in Virginia in August was 252,300, which is not only 2 percent higher than last year, but Vermillion believes it is an all-time high for the state. “While much of what you read about the impact of the credit crunch on construction is negative, this is definitely not the case for commercial construction,” he adds. Projects recently breaking ground include the 360-acre One Loudoun, a 3-million-square-foot mixed-used project in Loudoun County, and a 1.3 million-square-foot industrial park in Suffolk. One key driver for the commercial real estate market is federal, state and local government agencies. “A good portion of commercial construction is with government entities for projects like schools, highways and sewage treatment plants, which aren’t as susceptible to credit issues as residential construction,” says Vermillion.

5 Responses to “Commercial Real Estate gloom and doom”

  1. Richmond Review Says:

    Richmond…

    The last post of Richmondrapport on richmond is quite ……

  2. John Says:

    When I’m not rambling about online, I work in the construction materials industry and most of our strategic research suggests that the commercial construction in Northern Virginia has already started to drop-off. While nowhere near as steep as the residential dive (upwards of 60% decline since early 2006), and lagging the residential drop by several quarters, we expect to see significant constriction in the commercial market in 2008.

    That said, I agree that the local media is providing a lot of anecdotal information, and not doing much analysis of hard data. The commercial market in Central Virginia is still pretty solid, residential hasn’t dropped off anywhere near as dramatically as in Northern Virginia, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that what happens next is part of a giant crap shoot.

    In other words: Current state = reasonably good. Future state = worrisome, but unknowable.

  3. Matt Barber Says:

    Thanks for the input John.

  4. Chris Woodcock Says:

    There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

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About Rapport

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RAPPORT is a business networking group for Young Real Estate Professionals in Richmond, VA.

The mission of RAPPORT is to foster professional development within the Richmond real estate community by bringing fellow professionals together to meet, share ideas and build relationships. Also, we will seek to engage in charitable and community oriented activites and programs to better enhance our industry’s visability and overall image.

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